SUMMARY OF 11:00 PM AST (0300 UTC) INFORMATION
Location: 19.5°N, 59.5°W
About: 250 mi (405 km) ENE of Anguilla
Maximum Sustained Winds: 100 mph (155 km/h)
Present Movement: WNW at 17 mph (28 km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 979 mb (28.91 inches)
Watches and Warnings
Changes with this advisory: None.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for:
Anguilla
St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
Saba and St. Eustatius
Sint Maarten
A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
Residents of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos, and the southeastern Bahamas are strongly advised to monitor the progress of Hurricane Erin.
Discussion and Outlook
At 11:00 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erin was located near latitude 19.5° North, longitude 59.5° West. Erin continues to move toward the west-northwest at 17 mph (28 km/h), a motion expected to persist through the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward speed.
On the forecast track, Erin’s center is likely to pass just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend.
Data from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Erin is forecast to become a major hurricane this weekend.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).
Hazards Affecting Land
Rainfall:
Outer bands of Erin are expected to bring heavy rainfall from tonight into Sunday across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, may cause flash flooding, urban flooding, and landslides or mudslides in vulnerable areas.
Wind:
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday.
Surf:
Swells generated by Erin will begin affecting portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands this weekend. These swells will likely spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the United States early next week, creating life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please follow updates from your local meteorological office.
