Get Ready for Another Busy Atlantic Hurricane Season, But Maybe Not as Crazy As 2024
A property owner peers into the remains of the second-floor unit where he lived with his wife on Manasota Key in Florida. following the passage of Hurricane Milton last October. AP
WASHINGTON (AP):
With warmer-than-normal ocean waters, forecasters are expecting yet another unusually busy hurricane season for the Atlantic. But they don’t think it will be as chaotic as 2024, the third-costliest season on record, as it spawned killer storms Beryl, Helene and Milton.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday unveiled its outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season that begins June 1 and stretches through the end of November, with a 60 per cent chance it will be above normal, a 30 per cent chance near normal and just 10 per cent chance it will be quieter than average.
The forecast calls for 13 to 19 named storms with six to 10 becoming hurricanes and three to five reaching major status with winds of more than 110 mph (177 kph). A normal season has 14 named storms, seven of which strengthen to hurricanes and three power up further to major hurricanes.
Ocean warmth is not quite as high as last year’s off-the-charts heat. But it’s sufficient to be the top reason for the busy forecast, National Weather Service Director Ken Graham said.
“Everything is in place for an above-average season,” he said.
Despite massive job cuts at NOAA from the Department of Government Efficiency, “our ability to serve this country has never been better and it will be this year as well,” Graham said at a news conference Thursday in Gretna, Louisiana, to commemorate the 20th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina.
“The hurricane centre is fully staffed up and we’re ready to go,” acting NOAA administrator Laura Grimm said. “We are making this a top priority for this administration.”
Since 1995, 21 of the 30 Atlantic hurricane seasons have been officially classified as above normal, with nearly half of those considered “hyperactive,” according to NOAA. It classifies seasons based on their Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index, which takes into account the number and strength of storms and how long they last. In the last 10 years, only 2015 was below normal, and 2022 was near normal.
Last year started with a record early Category 5 hurricane in Beryl but then had a lull during the early part of peak storm season from mid-August to mid-October. But then six storms, including Helene and Milton, formed in just two weeks. With 18 named storms, 11 of those becoming hurricanes and five major hurricanes, 2024 was considered a hyperactive season in the Atlantic. And it was the third such in the last 10 years.