…POORLY ORGANIZED ERIKA EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARD
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST…0000 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 215 MI…347 KM ESE OF ST KITTS & NEVIS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 59.5 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward
motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected over the next
48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near
or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight, move near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday, and be near or just
north of the north coast of the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Both NOAA and Air Force planes are currently investigating Erika,
and the maximum sustained winds are still likely to be near 45 mph
(75 km/h) with higher gusts. These winds are confined to heavy
squalls to the southeast of the center. Little change in strength or
perhaps some slight weakening could occur during the next 48 hours.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
to the east of the center.
The latest minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, and reach the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in the Leeward Islands tonight and early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions could reach portions of the
Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos
Islands on Friday.
RAINFALL: Erika is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches with maximum amounts of 8 inches across portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the
Dominican Republic through Friday.