Tropical Storm Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands Monday and Monday night, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds before turning to the north by Tuesday.
Two nearly twin tropical storms swirling through the Atlantic Basin together are keeping forecasters busy and presenting them with a challenging forecast, but now one is meriting more attention than the other as it swirls uncomfortably close to the northern Leeward Islands.
Tropical Storm Philippe is now centered about 180 miles east of the island of Guadeloupe, with peak winds estimated to be 50 mph.
Due to Philippe’s expected close brush with the northern Leeward Islands, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the islands of Antigua and Barbuda, with the possibility of additional watches or warnings being issued later Sunday. A Tropical Storm Watch means winds of at least 39 mph are possible in the watch area within 48 hours.
There are still several complex atmospheric factors at play that will influence Philippe’s future, including the fate of Tropical Storm Rina, which is churning just behind Philippe.
Tropica Storm Philippe is expected to maintain its current strength for the next couple of days as it moves toward the west-northwestward and then turns northwest. Strengthening is expected by midweek as Philippe turns northward and moves away from the northern Leeward Islands.
On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Between 4 and 6 inches of rain is expected on Antigua and Barbuda, with 2 to 4 inches predicted for the rest of the Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds (39-plus mph) are also possible in the Tropical Storm Watch areas by Monday morning.
Life-threatening rip currents will also affect portions of the Atlantic coasts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next few days.
After moving away from the northern Leeward Islands, the NHC predicts Philippe will reach Category 1 hurricane status later this week as it moves into the central Atlantic Ocean.
Philippe is the 16th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and the 17th to reach at least tropical storm status.
Philippe’s neighbor, Tropical Storm Rina, is moving to the northwest and barely holding onto tropical storm status, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Unlike Philippe, Rina’s time is coming to an end. The storm is expected to break free of Philippe and become a remnant area of low pressure by Sunday night as it turns toward the north-northwest and north. Rina will likely dissipate by late Monday as it encounters strong wind shear.
Rina is the 17th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season and the 18th to reach at least tropical storm status.