Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (Source: NHC)
The US National Hurricane Center (US NHC) in its 2 pm update on the disturbance East of the Windward Islands says a broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands is producing an area of showers and thunderstorms to the southeast of an ill-defined centre.
Upper-level winds are likely to become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the next couple of days if the system stays far enough away from land while moving westward at about 15 mph across the Windward Islands and the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday.
Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently investigating this system.
The disturbance has a (medium) 40 percent chance of cyclone formation through the next and a (high) 70 percent chance of formation through the next 5 days.
Original story- 11:50 am
The US National Hurricane Center (US NHC) has issued a special Tropical Weather Outlook on the tropical wave east of the Windward Islands.
In an update around 11:50 am, the NHC said visible satellite images and recent satellite-derived wind data suggest that a broad low-level circulation could be forming in association with the tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands.
Although the wave is currently being affected by strong upper-level winds, conditions could become more conducive for a tropical depression to form while moving westward at about 15 miles per hour, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early Wednesday.
Conditions appear to become more conducive for development later this week when the system reaches the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over portions of the Windward Islands tonight and Wednesday.
Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this system.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate this system.
The disturbance has a (medium) 40 percent chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a (medium) 60 percent chance of formation in the next five days. through 48 hours…medium…40 percent.